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Weekly Market Report

01 Feb 2021

01 February 2021


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended lower last week, amid concerns over economic recovery due to rising coronavirus cases.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, amid worries over prolonged lockdown restrictions in the country.

Average earnings including bonus climbed more than market consensus in November.

The ILO unemployment rate advanced to a 4-year high level in November.

The CBI distributive trade survey's retail sales balance fell to its lowest since May 2020 in January.

European Markets ended the week on a negative footing, amid delay in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.

In the Eurozone, the economic sentiment indicator dropped less than estimated in January.

Eurozone’s services sentiment indicator declined less than market consensus in January.

In the Eurozone, industrial confidence index improved in January.

Eurozone’s business climate index rose in January.

In the Eurozone, the consumer confidence index dropped as estimated in January.

Germany's consumer inflation turned positive for the first time in 7 months in January.

In Germany, gross domestic product (GDP) grew in 4Q20.

Germany' Ifo business expectations index unexpectedly fell in January.

In Germany, the Ifo current assessment index dropped in January.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index declined to a six-month low in January.

In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index weakened in February.

Germany’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in December.

US Markets ended the week in red, as hopes for additional fiscal stimulus faded.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index advanced in December.

The housing price index rose on a monthly basis in November.

The CB consumer confidence index rebounded in January.

Personal income rebounded in December.

The housing price index climbed in November.

Initial jobless claims dropped for a second consecutive week last week.

The leading indicator rose in line with market expectations in December.

The Kansas Fed manufacturing activity climbed in January.

New home sales advanced for the first time in 5 months in December.

The Chicago Fed PMI advanced to a 2-year high level in January.

Durable goods orders rose less than market forecast in December.

The MBA mortgage applications dropped on a weekly basis in the week ended 22 January 2021.

GDP slowed in 4Q20.

Pending home sales fell more than expected in December.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index eased in January.

Personal spending declined in December.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing business index dropped in January.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell in January.

Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely expected and maintained the pace of its asset purchase program at a rate of at least $120 billion. The Fed reiterated that it expects to leave rates at near-zero levels until labour market stabilises with maximum employment and inflation is on track to moderately exceed its 2% goal.

Asian Markets ended weaker last week, tracking losses in their US counterparts.

Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) climbed in 4Q20.

In Australia, the Westpac leading index rose in December.

Australia’s NAB business conditions index rose to a 2-year high in December.

Australia’s private sector credit demand climbed on a yearly basis in December.

In Australia, the AiG performance of manufacturing index advanced in January.

Australia’s home loans increased in December.

In Australia, the NAB business confidence index dropped in December.

Australia’s producer price index (PPI) declined in 4Q20.

In Australia, the Commonwealth Bank manufacturing PMI remained steady in January.

China’s non-manufacturing PMI eased in January.

In Chine, the NBS manufacturing PMI fell in January.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January.

Japan’s leading economic index rose in November.

Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose in January.

In Japan, retail trade dropped in December.

Japan’s coincident index eased in November.

Japan’s industrial production declined more than expected in December.

In Japan, the corporate services price index dropped in December.

Japan’s contrsuction orders fell on an annual basis in December.

In Japan, housing starts dropped more than market forecast in December.

Japan’s consumer confidence index fell in January.

In Japan, the unemployment rate remained unchanged in December.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD last week, amid concerns over deadlock in coronavirus vaccine deal.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, amid optimism surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
The US Dollar ended mostly stronger against its major counterparts last week, as concerns over rising coronavirus cases increased demand for the safe haven asset.


IMF lifts global growth forecast for 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up its 2021 global growth forecast to 5.5% from 5.2% forecasted in October, citing the acceleration of Covid-19 vaccine rollout and government support provided by large economies such as the US and Japan. However, the IMF warned that the world economy continued to face “exceptional uncertainty” and global activity would remain well below pre-COVID projections made in the previous year. Moreover, the organisation projected that the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the global economy $22 trillion over 2020-2025 relative to pre-pandemic estimated levels.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US Markit manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing PMI, the MBA mortgage applications, the ADP employment change, the Markit services PMI, the ISM services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, factory orders, initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s Markit manufacturing PMI, the unemployment rate, gross domestic product (GDP), the Markit services PMI, the consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (PPI), retail sales along with Germany’s retail sales, the Markit manufacturing PMI, the Markit services PMI and factory orders will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s Markit manufacturing PMI, the Markit services PMI, the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, the Halifax house price index and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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