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Weekly Market Report

08 Feb 2021

08 February 2021


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended firmer last week, on hopes for a swift global economic recovery.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, after the Bank of England (BoE) projected a rapid rebound in the UK economy.

Net consumer credit fell less than expected in December.

Mortgage approvals dropped in December.

The Markit manufacturing PMI dropped to a three-month low in January.

The Nationwide house price growth slowed for the first time in six months in January.

UK service sector activity weakened at its fastest pace in eight months in January.

The Markit construction PMI declined in January.

The Halifax house price index eased for the first time in six months in January.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, amid progress in the pace of Covid-19 vaccine rollout.

In the Eurozone, retail sales grew more than market anticipations in December.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped less than expected in 4Q20.

In the Eurozone, consumer prices rose for the first time in six months in January.

Eurozone’s producer price index (PPI) dropped less than market forecast on an annual basis in December.

In the Eurozone, the Markit services PMI eased in January.

Eurozone’s Markit manufacturing PMI fell in January.

Eurozone’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in December.

Germany’s service sector activity contracted for the fourth straight month in January.

In Germany, factory orders fell in December.

Germany’s Markit manufacturing PMI declined in January.

In Germany, retail sales dropped more than market consensus on monthly basis in December.

US Markets ended the week in green, amid upbeat quarterly corporate earnings and renewed stimulus hopes.

The Markit manufacturing PMI advanced in January.

Construction spending rose in December.

Private sector employment rose more than expected in January.

The ISM services index unexpectedly advanced to two-year high in January.

The Markit services PMI climbed in January.

The MBA mortgage applications jumped on a weekly basis in the week ended 29 January 2021.

Factory orders advanced for an eighth consecutive month in December.

Durable goods orders climbed in December.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to a two-month low in the week ended 29 January 2021.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January.

Nonfarm payrolls increased less than expected in January.

Trade deficit jumped to 12-year high in 2020.

The ISM-NY business conditions index declined in January.

Average hourly earnings grew less than expected in January.

The ISM manufacturing index declined in January.

Asian Markets ended firmer last week, tracking gains in their US counterparts.

Japan’s current account surplus narrowed less than expected in December.

In Japan, trade surplus (BOP) basis widened in December.

Japan’s household spending fell less than expected in December.

In Japan, the coincident index dropped in December.

Japan’s leading economic index eased in December.

In Japan, the Jibun Bank services PMI declined in January.

In Australia, building permits climbed in December.

Australia’s trade surplus widened in December.

Australia’s AiG performance of services index advanced in December.

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank services PMI weakened in January.

In Australia, retail sales fell in December.

China’s Caixin services PMI dropped in January.

RBA Governor Phillip Lowe stated that interest rates would remain low until at least 2024. Further, he stated that the downturn in Australia was not as deep as he had feared and the recovery started earlier and has been stronger than expected.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD last week, as prolonged and hard lockdown restrictions across Europe sparked fears of a double-dip recession in the first quarter of 2021.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, as BoE sees negative interest rates less likely.
The US Dollar ended mostly stronger against its major counterparts last week, following upbeat domestic economic data.


BoE says banks will need six months to prepare for negative rates

The BoE in its latest monetary policy decision, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and maintained the size of its total asset purchase programme at £895 billion. However, the central bank cautioned that it would introduce negative interest rates if the recovery falters. Further, the BoE forecasted that Britain’s economy would contract by 4% in the first three months of 2021 and also lowered its growth forecast to 5% for the whole year, compared to a rate of 7.25% previously anticipated.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US NFIB business optimism index, the consumer price index (CPI), monthly budget statement, initial jobless claims and the Michigan consumer sentiment index for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index, industrial production along with Germany’s industrial production, current account balance, trade balance and the CPI will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s BRC like for like retail sales, the NIESR GDP estimate, the RICS house price index, trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing production, gross domestic product (GDP), total trade balance and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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