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Weekly Market Report

10 Feb 2020

10 February 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended firmer last week, as tensions over the coronavirus subsided, after China announced liquidity measures to support the economy and amid reports of a breakthrough in the development of the coronavirus treatment.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, amid weakness in the British Pound and as concerns about the global impact of coronavirus outbreak faded.

UK’s Markit manufacturing PMI jumped to a 9-month high level in January.

The Markit construction PMI advanced more than market forecast in January.

The Markit services PMI climbed to its highest level since September 2018 in January.

The Halifax house prices rose at its fastest annual pace since February 2018 in the November-January 2020 period.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, following China’s stimulus efforts to contain the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

Eurozone’s Markit manufacturing PMI climbed to its highest level since April 2019 in January.

The Markit services PMI in the Eurozone dropped in January.

Eurozone’s retail sales declined more than market forecast on a monthly basis in December.

The producer price index (PPI) in the Eurozone dropped for the fifth straight month in December.

Germany’s Markit manufacturing PMI recorded a rise in January, hitting its highest level in 11 months.

Trade surplus in Germany unexpectedly widened in December.

Germany’s current account surplus widened in December.

The Markit services PMI in Germany unexpectedly advanced in January.

Germany’s industrial production fell on a monthly basis in December, registering its biggest drop in more than a decade.

Factory orders in Germany unexpectedly declined on a monthly basis in December.

US Markets ended the week in green, following a series of upbeat US economic data and after China’s central bank intervened to combat the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic.

The US Markit manufacturing PMI dropped in January.

The Markit services PMI climbed more than market expectations in January.

The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded for the first time since July 2019 in January.

Nonfarm payrolls climbed more than market forecast in January.

Factory orders recorded a rise on a monthly basis in December, marking its largest gain since August 2018.

Durable goods orders rebounded on a monthly basis in December.

The MBA mortgage applications increased in the week ended 31 January 2020.

The ADP employment unexpectedly climbed in January.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose more-than-anticipated in January.

Initial jobless claims declined to its lowest reading since last April in the week ended 31 January 2020.

Consumer credit jumped in December, marking its highest level in five months.

Construction spending unexpectedly fell on a monthly basis in December.

Trade deficit widened more than market expectations in December.

Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in January.

Average hourly earnings increased on a monthly basis in January.

Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week, tracking gains in the global equity markets.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) climbed to its highest reading since October 2011 on an annual basis in January.

The annual PPI in China rebounded in January.

China’s Caixin services PMI declined to a three-month low level in January.

Trade surplus in China narrowed less than market expectations in January.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI in China dipped more than market expectations in January.

Australia’s trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in December.

Retail sales in Australia declined to its lowest level in two and a half years on a monthly basis in December.

In Australia, the NAB business confidence index remained unchanged in 4Q19.

Australia’s AiG performance of services index dropped in January.

The AiG performance of manufacturing index in Australia dropped in January.

Japan’s overall household spending fell more than market forecast on a yearly basis in December.

Current account surplus in Japan narrowed more than market anticipations in December.

Japan posted a trade surplus in December.

In Japan, the Jibun Bank services PMI climbed in January.

The leading index in Japan unexpectedly rose in December.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its latest policy meeting, kept its key interest rate steady at 0.75%, as widely expected. The RBA indicated that interest rates are set to remain low for an extended period so as to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. However, officials stated that the central bank was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy.


Currency Update

The AUD ended lower against the USD last week, after the RBA cut its growth forecast for 2020.
The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback in the previous week, amid ongoing concerns over the post-Brexit trade terms between the UK and the European Union.
The US Dollar ended stronger against its major counterparts last week, following robust US economic data.


RBA lowers growth forecast for the economy

The RBA, at its latest quarterly economic outlook, slashed its near-term growth forecast for the Australian economy and warned that the economy is facing a "soft patch" due to the bushfires, drought and the coronavirus outbreak in China but expects a rapid recovery later in the year. The central bank now expects growth to reach 1.9% in the year to June 2020 compared to the previous forecast of 2.6%. However, it expects growth to accelerate to 2.7% by the end of 2020 and to 3.0% by the close of 2021. Further, the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, stated that the central bank would consider quantitative easing and purchasing of assets through balance sheet expansion only when the cash rate eases to 0.25%.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US CPI, NFIB business optimism index, the JOTS job openings, monthly budget statement, retail sales, industrial production and the Michigan consumer sentiment index along with the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP), trade balance, retail sales, industrial and manufacturing production for further direction. Additionally, the Eurozone’s GDP, Sentix investor confidence index, industrial production and trade balance along with Germany’s GDP and CPI will be on investors’ radar.


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