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Weekly Market Report

06 May 2019

06 May 2019


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly higher last week.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, led by losses in oil producers and mining stocks.

The GfK consumer confidence remained unchanged in April, meeting market expectations.

The Nationwide house prices rose on an annual basis in April.

Net consumer credit in the UK rose less than anticipated in April.

The Markit manufacturing PMI dropped in line with market expectations in April.

Britain’s mortgage approvals declined more than market forecast in March, marking its lowest level since December 2017.

The BRC shop price index edged up on an annual basis in April.

In the UK, the construction PMI jumped more than expected in April.

Britain’s services PMI rose at par with market expectations in April.

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, pledged to create a “new” BoE for the “new economy” of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Additionally, Carney stated that the central bank was opening up its payments infrastructure to fintech startups to help adapt to changes in technology and the global economy.

The BoE, in its latest policy decision, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with economists' expectations. The bank is expecting growth and inflation to pick up over the next two years and signalled slow rate hikes despite stronger economic growth.

The BoE, in its May inflation report, raised its first quarter growth projection to 0.5% from 0.3% predicted in February, citing a brighter outlook for the global economy.

The BoE Governor Mark Carney, in his speech, stated that interest rate hikes could be “more frequent” than expected if the economy performs as per the central bank’s expectations.

European Markets ended mostly higher last week.

In the Eurozone, the consumer confidence index dropped in line with market expectations in April.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment indicator declined in April, hitting its lowest level in 2 years.

The business climate indicator in the Eurozone fell for the second consecutive month in April, higher than market forecast.

In the Eurozone, the seasonally adjusted flash gross domestic product (GDP) climbed on a quarterly basis in 1Q 2019.

Eurozone’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a 10-year low level in March.

Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed in April.

Eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) climbed to a 5-month high level in April.

In the Eurozone, the producer price index (PPI) eased for the first time in three months in March.

In Germany, retail sales unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in March.

Germany’s final manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped in April.

In Germany, the CPI advanced more than expected on an annual basis in April.

In Germany, unemployment rate remained steady in April, registering its lowest rate since reunification in 1990.

The GfK consumer confidence in Germany remained unchanged in May.

US Markets ended mostly higher last week, following stronger than expected US jobs data.

In March, personal income in the US rose less than expected on a monthly basis in March.

In the US, personal spending rose on a monthly basis in March, higher than market expectations.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing business index unexpectedly fell in April.

The MBA mortgage applications in the US fell on a weekly basis in the week ended 26 April 2019.

The US Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed in April.

The ISM manufacturing index dipped in April, notching its lowest level since October of 2016.

In the US, construction spending unexpectedly fell on a monthly basis in March.

The US ADP private sector employment rose higher than market expectations in April.

In the US, pending home sales dropped on a yearly basis in March.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index eased in April.

Consumer confidence index in the US jumped in April.

US factory orders rebounded more than expected in March.

In the US, durable goods orders climbed on a monthly basis in March.

US weekly jobless claims remained unchanged in the week ended 27 April 2019.

US advance goods trade deficit widened in March.

US non-farm payrolls increased more than expected in April.

In the US, unemployment rate dropped to a 49-year low level in April.

US average hourly earnings rose on an annual basis in April.

In the US, final services PMI dropped in April.

US ISM services index unexpectedly declined in April.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed), in its latest policy meeting, left its interest rate unchanged at 2.25% to 2.50%, for the third consecutive meeting. The Fed stated that the labour market remained robust, however, pointed to slower first quarter growth in household spending and business fixed investment.

Asian Markets ended mostly stronger last week.

Australia’s ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index dropped in the week ended 28 April 2019.

In Australia, private sector credit demand climbed on an annual basis in March, less than market expectations.

The AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index in Australia jumped in April.

In Australia, the AiG Performance of Service Index advanced in April.

Australia’s CBA services PMI eased in April.

Australia’s building approvals tumbled on a yearly basis in March.

The CBA manufacturing PMI slid in April.

China’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined in April.

In China, the Caixin services PMI unexpectedly rose in April.


Currency Update

The EUR ended higher against the USD, amid stronger than expected Eurozone’s inflation and GDP data.
The British Pound ended firmer against the greenback, amid reports of progress in the Brexit talks between the British government and the opposition party.
The US Dollar ended lower against its major counterparts last week, on the back of dismal manufacturing data in the US.


Fed Chairman rules out immediate rate moves

In the post-monetary policy meeting press conference, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, stated that the policy stance is appropriate right now and does not see a strong case to move interest rates either higher or lower. Additionally, he expects the recent weakness in inflation to be “transitory". Further, the central bank reiterated that it would remain patient to future adjustments to interest rates due to global economic and financial developments and subdued inflation.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors would focus on the US JOLTS job openings, the producer price index, the CPI, consumer credit, initial jobless claims along with trade balance, average hourly earnings and monthly budget statement. Also, UK’s gross domestic product, industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance will garner significant amount of investor attention. Additionally, Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index, retail sales and Germany’s trade balance and industrial production coupled with the services PMI across the euro area, will be on investors' radar.


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