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Weekly Market Report

11 Feb 2019

11 February 2019


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, as investors shrugged off worries over Brexit.

UK’s Markit construction PMI dropped more than market expectations in January, marking its lowest level in 10 months.

The Markit services PMI fell more than market expectations in January, marking its lowest level in two-and-a-half years.

The Halifax house price index fell more than market anticipations on a monthly basis in January.

The BRC retail sales across all sectors unexpectedly climbed on a yearly basis in January.

European Markets ended the week on a negative footing, on the back of dismal economic data and after the European Commission downgraded its growth forecasts for the euro area.

The Eurozone’s producer price index (PPI) advanced at a slower-than-expected pace on an annual basis in December.

The Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone unexpectedly dropped in February, hitting its lowest level since November 2014.

The Eurozone’s retail sales declined in line with market expectations on a monthly basis in December, hitting its lowest level in seven and a half years.

The Markit services PMI in the Eurozone remained steady in January.

Germany’s Markit services PMI advanced less than market forecast in January.

Trade surplus in Germany narrowed more than market forecast in December.

Germany’s current account surplus unexpectedly narrowed in December.

Industrial production in Germany unexpectedly dropped on a monthly basis in December.

Germany’s factory orders registered an unexpected decline on a monthly basis in December.

The Markit construction PMI in Germany eased in January.

The European Commission lowered its growth forecasts for the euro area for 2019 and 2020, citing heightened uncertainty and downside risks to the outlook. It slashed Eurozone’s economic growth projection for this year to 1.3% from 1.9% and to 1.6% from 1.7% for 2020.

US Markets ended the week in green, buoyed by a series of upbeat corporate reports.

The US trade deficit narrowed more than market expectations in November.

Factory orders registered an unexpected decline in November.

Durable goods orders advanced less than market anticipations in November.

The Markit services PMI dropped in line with market forecast in January.

Initial jobless claims fell less than expected in the week ended 2 February 2019.

Consumer credit rose less than market forecast in December.

The MBA mortgage applications registered a decline in the week ended 1 February 2019, marking its lowest level in 10 months.

Asian Markets ended mostly higher last week.

Australia’s CBA services PMI recorded a drop in January.

The AiG performance of service index in Australia registered a decline in January.

Australia’s retail sales unexpected dropped on a monthly basis in December.

The AiG performance of construction index in Australia advanced in January.

Australia’s NAB business confidence index recorded a drop in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index in Australia climbed in the week ended 3 February 2019.

Australia’s trade surplus widened more than market expectations in December.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its monetary policy statement, cut its economic and inflation growth forecasts. Accordingly, the central bank now expects economic growth of 2.50% in the 12 months ended 30 June, down from its previous forecast of 3.25%. Additionally, the bank cut its inflation forecast for the same period from 2.00% to 1.25%. Further, the board stated that it does not see strong case to move rates in the near term.

Japan posted a trade surplus (BOP basis) in December.

The Nikkei services PMI in Japan recorded a rise in January.

Japan’s housing loans registered a rise on an annual basis in 4Q 2018.

Total current account surplus in Japan widened in December.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD, after the European Commission slashed its growth forecast for the Eurozone’s economy.
The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback, after the Bank of England (BoE) cut its growth and inflation forecasts for the UK economy, citing Brexit uncertainty.
The US Dollar ended stronger against its major counterparts last week, as worries about US-China trade tensions and concerns over global economic growth increased demand for the safe haven assets.


The BoE cut its growth forecast for the UK economy, amid Brexit uncertainty

The BoE, in its latest monetary policy decision, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected and maintained its asset purchase facility steady at £435.00 billion. However, the central bank slashed its growth forecast for this year to 1.2% from 1.7%, citing uncertainty over Brexit. Growth projection for 2020 was also lowered to 1.5%, while the growth outlook for 2021 was raised to 1.9%.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US PPI, NFIB small optimism index, MBA mortgage applications, CPI, average weekly earnings and monthly budget statement along with initial jobless claims, business inventories, advance retail sales, industrial and manufacturing production and the US Michigan consumer sentiment index for further direction. Additionally, UK’s GDP, trade balance, construction output, industrial and manufacturing production, CPI, PPI, house price index, the RICS house price balance and retail sales along with the Eurozone’s GDP, industrial production, trade balance and Germany’s GDP will attract significant investor attention.


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