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Weekly Market Report

11 Mar 2019

11 March 2019


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended lower last week, amid ongoing global growth concerns and after the OECD slashed its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020.

The OECD, in its economic outlook report, downgraded its 2019 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% projected in November. Additionally, the agency also trimmed growth projection to 3.4% for 2020. Further, the OECD warned that trade tensions and political uncertainty are posing risks to the global economic growth.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, amid continuous uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

UK’s Markit construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell more than market forecast in February, marking its first decline in 11 months.

The BRC retail sales across all sectors recorded an unexpected drop on a yearly basis in February.

The Markit services PMI unexpectedly advanced in February.

The Halifax house prices rose more than market expectations on a monthly basis in February.

European Markets ended the week on a negative footing, after the European Central Bank (ECB) downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2019.

The Eurozone’s producer price index (PPI) advanced more than market anticipations on an annual basis in January.

The Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone recorded a more-than-expected rise in March.

The Eurozone’s Markit services PMI advanced more than market anticipations in February.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed in line with market forecast on a monthly basis in January.

The Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at par with market expectations on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Germany’s Markit services PMI registered a more-than-expected rise in February, recording its highest level in five months.

The Markit construction PMI in Germany climbed in February.

Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly dropped at its fastest pace in seven months on a monthly basis in January.

US Markets ended the week in red, amid dismal US jobs data and global growth worries.

The US non-farm payrolls recorded a less-than-expected rise in February, registering its smallest gain since September 2017.

Construction spending unexpectedly dropped on a monthly basis in December.

Monthly budget surplus narrowed more than market forecast in January.

The Markit services PMI recorded a less-than-expected rise in February.

The MBA mortgage applications registered a decline in the week ended 1 March 2019.

The ADP employment change rose less than market expectations in February.

Trade deficit widened more than market forecast in December.

New home sales climbed to a 7-month high level on a monthly basis in December.

Initial jobless claims declined more than market forecast in the week ended 2 March 2019.

Consumer credit climbed more than market anticipations in January.

Unemployment rate dropped more than market forecast in February.

Housing starts recorded a rise on a monthly basis in January.

Building permits unexpectedly jumped on a monthly basis in January.

Average hourly earnings climbed on a monthly basis in February.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book reported that most of the Fed districts witnessed ‘slight-to-moderate’ growth in late January and February. However, the partial government shutdown led to slower economic activity in about half of the districts. Further, the report revealed concerns over economic slowdown in 2019 and supported Fed officials pledge to remain patient on future interest-rate hikes.

Asian Markets ended weaker last week, mirroring losses in their US counterparts.

Australia’s AiG performance of service index registered an advance in February.

The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index in Australia recorded a rise in the week ended 3 March 2019.

Australia’s current account deficit narrowed more than market expectations in 4Q18.

The AiG performance of construction index in Australia advanced in February.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus unexpectedly widened in January.

The CBA services PMI in Australia recorded a drop in February.

Australia’s quarterly GDP rose less than market forecast in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Seasonally adjusted retail sales in Australia advanced less than market expectations on a monthly basis in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.

China’s Caixin services PMI fell more than market forecast to its lowest level in four months in February.

The PPI in China rose less-than-expected on an annual basis in February.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) advanced in line with market forecast on an annual basis in February.

Japan’s Nikkei services PMI climbed in February.

Japan posted a trade deficit (BOP basis) in January.

In Japan, the final GDP registered a more-than-anticipated rise on a quarterly basis in 4Q18.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD, after the ECB decided not to raise interest rates until 2020 and slashed its growth forecast for the euro area.
The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback, ahead of the second Brexit vote.
The US Dollar fell against the Japanese Yen last week, following weaker than expected US jobs report.


ECB unveils fresh bank stimulus, trims growth forecasts

The ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.0%, as widely expected and stated that it would not raise interest rates before 2020. Further, the central bank announced a new round of long-term loans for Eurozone banks in an effort to boost lending in the economy. Meanwhile, the ECB sharply cut its growth forecasts for the euro area to 1.1% from 1.7% for 2019. Additionally, the outlook for next year was cut to 1.6% from 1.7%.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US advance retail sales, PPI, business inventories, NFIB small optimism index, CPI, average hourly earnings, the MBA mortgage application and durable goods orders along with construction spending, initial jobless claims, new home sales data, the Empire manufacturing PMI, the JOLTS job openings, the Michigan consumer sentiment index, industrial and manufacturing production for further direction. Additionally, the Eurozone’s CPI and industrial production along with Germany’s industrial production, current account balance, trade balance, CPI will be on investor’s radar. Also, UK’s trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, construction output and the RICS house price balance will also be on investors’ radar.


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