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Weekly Market Report

11 May 2020

11 May 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week, amid optimism that economic and business activities around the world would soon resume as several country’s began easing coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, after the Bank of England (BoE) kept its interest rate unchanged at a record low level.

In the UK, the Markit services PMI fell in April.

The Markit construction PMI dropped in April, marking its lowest level since the data was first collected in April 1997.

UK’s Halifax house price index declined less than market forecast on a monthly basis in April.

The GfK consumer confidence index advanced less than market forecast in April.

European Markets ended mostly lower, amid decline in oil prices and disappointing economic data.

In the Eurozone, the final Markit manufacturing PMI fell in April.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence improved in May.

In the Eurozone, the producer price index (PPI) dropped at a faster pace in March.

Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted retail sales dropped more than market anticipations on a monthly basis in March.

Eurozone’s final Markit services PMI declined in April.

In Germany, the Markit manufacturing PMI plummeted in April, marking its lowest level since March 2009.

Germany’s Markit services PMI fell less than market consensus in April.

In Germany, factory orders declined in March, registering its biggest drop since January 1991.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial production slumped in March, marking its largest decline since the beginning of the series in January 1991.

In Germany, seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed more than market expectations in March.

Germany’s non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened in March.

US Markets ended the week in green, amid ease in the US-China trade tensions.

US factory orders sharply dropped on a monthly basis in March.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in over ten years in April.

The final Markit services PMI dropped in April.

US trade deficit widened more than market anticipations in March.

Private sector employment slumped more than market forecast in April.

The MBA mortgage applications climbed on a weekly basis in the week ended 01 May 2020.

In the US, seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims fell less than market expectations on a weekly basis in week ended 01 May 2020.

US consumer credit dropped more-than-anticipated in March.

The US unemployment rate advanced in April, hitting its highest level since the Great Depression.

Average hourly earnings of all employees rose more-than-expected in April.

Non-farm payrolls fell less than market forecast in April.

Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week, tracking gains in their US counterparts.

Australia’s AiG performance of construction PMI fell in April.

In Australia, the Commonwealth Bank services PMI slid more than market anticipations in April.

Australia’s retail sales advanced more than market forecast in March.

In Australia, the AiG performance of services index tumbled in April.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-expected in March.

In China, trade surplus expanded in April.

China’s Caixin services PMI advanced less-than-expected in April.

In Japan, overall household spending dropped less than market forecast on an annual basis in March.

Japan’s Jibun Bank services PMI fell in April.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its latest monetary policy meeting, kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely expected. Further, the RBA indicated that it would not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation. Moreover, RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, stated that the central bank remains committed to do what it can to support jobs and economic recovery during this difficult phase.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD last week, after a German Constitutional Court questioned the legality of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) stimulus package and asked to justify purchases under its bond-buying programme or lose the Bundesbank’s participation in its main stimulus schemes.
The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback last week, after UK’s central bank predicted that the British economy could shrink by 14% in 2020, recording its biggest economic slump in over 300 years due to coronavirus crisis.
The US Dollar ended mostly weaker against its major counterparts last week, after data indicated that a record 20.5 million jobs were lost in the US last month.


BoE: Britain’s economy likely to shrink by 14% in 2020

The Bank of England (BoE), in its latest monetary policy decision, kept its key interest rate decision unchanged at 0.1%, as widely expected and maintained its bond-buying programme at GBP645bn. The central bank held off further stimulus measures but stated that it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus. Further, the BoE predicted that Britain’s economy is expected to shrink by 25% in the three months to June and by 14% in 2020 with the unemployment rate more than doubling to 9% in the second quarter. Additionally, the central bank warned that economy could face its biggest slump in over 300 years in 2020, due Covid-19 crisis. However, the bank expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, with GDP recovering its pre-Covid peak by the second half of next year.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US consumer price index (CPI), Fed’s monthly budget statement, the producer price index (PPI), initial jobless claims, the NY Empire state manufacturing index, retail sales and the Michigan consumer sentiment index for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s industrial production, gross domestic product (GDP), employment change and trade balance along with Germany’s CPI and GDP will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s industrial production, manufacturing production, GDP and total trade balance would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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