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Weekly Market Report

28 Jan 2019

28 January 2019


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, amid strength in the British Pound and led by global growth worries.

UK’s average weekly earnings rose more than market forecast on an annual basis in the September-November 2018 period, notching its highest level since July 2008.

Public sector net borrowing deficit narrowed in December.

The BBA loans for house purchases eased less than market expectations in December.

The ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped in the September-November 2018 period, marking its lowest since December 1974 to February 1975 period.

The CBI total trends orders declined more than market expectations in January.

Claimant count rate recorded an unchanged reading in December.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, on optimism over the US and China trade negotiations.

The Eurozone’s ZEW survey economic sentiment index recorded a rise in January.

The consumer confidence index in the Eurozone eased more than market forecast in January.

The Eurozone’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined in January, marking its lowest level in 50 months.

The Markit services PMI in the Eurozone recorded an unexpected fall to a 65-month low level in January.

Germany’s ZEW survey current situation index fell more than market forecast in January, hitting its lowest level since January 2015.

The producer price inflation in Germany dropped to a seven-month low level on an annual basis in December.

Germany’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly eased to a 50-month low level in January.

The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell more than market forecast in January, marking its lowest reading since March 2016.

Germany’s Ifo expectations index registered a more-than-expected decline in January.

Markit services PMI in Germany climbed more than market forecast in January, notching its highest level in two months.

Germany’s ZEW survey expectations index registered an unexpected advance in January, recording its highest level since September 2018.

The Ifo current assessment index in Germany dropped less than market anticipation in January.

US Markets ended the week mostly higher, amid strong corporate earnings report and after an end to the US government shutdown.

The US existing home sales declined to a three-year low level in December.

The MBA mortgage applications recorded a decline in the week ended 18 January 2018.

The leading index registered a drop in December.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index climbed in line with market expectations in January.

The house price index registered a more-than-anticipated advance on a monthly basis in November.

Markit manufacturing PMI recorded an unexpected advance in January.

Initial jobless claims registered an unexpected decline to a 49-year low level in the week ended 19 January 2019.

The services PMI recorded a less-than-anticipated drop in January.

Asian Markets ended firmer last week, mirroring gains in their US counterparts.

Australia’s ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index declined in the week ended 20 January 2019.

The Westpac leading index in Australia recorded a decline on a monthly basis in December.

Australia’s CBA services PMI dropped in January.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in December.

The CBA manufacturing PMI in Australia recorded a rise in January.

Japan’s merchandise (total) trade deficit narrowed less-than-expected in December.

The all industry activity index in Japan dropped on a monthly basis in November.

Japan’s preliminary manufacturing PMI registered a drop in January.

The final leading economic index in Japan recorded a drop in November.

Japan’s Tokyo CPI rose more than market anticipations on an annual basis in January.

The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate steady at -0.1%.


Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD, after Germany’s Markit services PMI climed to a two-month level in January.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback, amid increasing hopes that Britain will avoid a no-deal Brexit, following reports that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party has pledged to support British Prime Minister, Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
The US Dollar ended weaker against its major counterparts last week, amid ongoing concerns over weaker global growth.


ECB President warns about growth risks in the Euro-area

The European Central Bank (ECB), in its latest monetary policy meeting, kept its key interest rate steady at 0.0%. Further, the central bank indicated that it still expects to keep interest rates at record lows 'through' the summer, staying with its long-standing guidance. The ECB President, Mario Draghi, warned that growth risks in the Eurozone had shifted to the downside on account of persistent uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, dismal economic data and emerging market volatility.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the FOMC interest rate decision, the US advance goods trade balance, consumer confidence index, GDP, personal consumption and initial jobless claims along with the change in non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, the Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, ISM employment data and the Michigan consumer sentiment index for further direction. Additionally, the Markit manufacturing PMI across the Eurozone, the Eurozone’s economic and consumer confidence index, business climate indicator, GDP, unemployment rate and CPI along with Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index, CPI and unemployment rate will attract investors’ attention. Also, UK’s net consumer credit, mortgage approvals, GfK consumer confidence index and the Markit manufacturing PMI will be on investors’ radar.


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