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Weekly Market Report

12 Oct 2020

12 October 2020

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The Market Last Week

Global equities ended firmer last week, amid hopes of an additional stimulus package from the US Federal Reserve.


UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, on hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal.

UK’s Markit construction PMI unexpectedly jumped in September.

In the UK, the Halifax house price index increased on a monthly basis in September.

UK’s NIESR GDP estimate climbed more than market forecast in September.

In the UK, the DCLG house price index rose less than market forecast on an annual basis in July.

UK’s economic growth slowed in August.

In the UK, industrial production advanced less than market expectations in August.

UK’s manufacturing production rose less than market anticipations in August.

In the UK, total trade surplus narrowed in August.

UK’s final Markit services PMI dropped in September.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Andrew Bailey, in his speech, indicated that Britain and the European Union should be able to reach a trade deal. Further, he reiterated that while he would like to see Britain and the EU to retain equivalent standards in financial services regulation, it would be wrong for Britain to continue to follow EU rules it had no control over. Bailey also said that risks to Britain’s economy were “very much to the downside” as it tries to recover from the coronavirus crisis.




European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, on optimism over fresh stimulus from the US government.

Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted retail sales advanced more than market anticipations in August.

In the Eurozone, the final Markit services PMI declined in September.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index unexpectedly eased in October.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted factory orders climbed for the fourth consecutive month in August.

In Germany, the final Markit services PMI dropped in September.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial production unexpectedly fell on a monthly basis in August.

In Germany, current account surplus narrowed in August.

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in August.

European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde, in her speech, warned that the current spike in the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe could delay the bloc’s economic recovery, due to the impact of the containment measures being taken by governments across the region. Moreover, she urged the government not to end the fiscal support too soon.

The ECB, in its September monetary policy meeting, indicated that it could consider more stimulus later this year and argued the need for keeping a “free hand” in view of the elevated uncertainty. The minutes suggested that policymakers were concerned about the inflation outlook more than previously expected. Meanwhile, the ECB warned that a further rise in the euro would be a “risk to both growth and inflation”.




US Markets ended the week in green, after US President Donald stated that he now sees “really good” odds of reaching a deal with Democrats on a new round of coronavirus stimulus.

In the US, the ISM services index unexpectedly climbed in September.

The MBA mortgage applications advanced on a weekly basis in the week ended 02 October 2020.

US JOLTs job openings dropped for the first time in four months in August.

US trade deficit widened to its highest level since 2006 in August.

The final Markit services PMI dropped in September.

US consumer credit declined in August.

Initial jobless claims dropped less-than-expected on a weekly basis in the week ended 02 October 2020.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor, Jerome Powell, in his speech, indicated that the central bank needs to continue with aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus for an economic recovery. Further, he added that the recovery will be stronger and move faster, if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side. Additionally, Powell stated that the government support including expanded unemployment insurance payments, direct payments to most US households and financial support for small businesses has so far prevented a recessionary “downward spiral”.




Asian Markets ended firmer last week, tracking gains in their US counterparts.

Australia’s AiG performance of construction index advanced in September.

In Australia, the NAB business confidence index climbed in September.

Australia’s NAB business conditions index improved in September.

In Australia, home loan approvals rose in August.

Australia’s trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed on a monthly basis in August.

In Australia, the AiG performance of services index fell in September.

China’s Caixin services PMI unexpectedly edged up in September.

Japan’s preliminary coincident index unexpectedly rose in August.

In Japan, non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened more than market consensus in August.

Japan’s trade surplus (BOP basis) widened in August.

In Japan, the flash leading economic index climbed less than market expectations in August.

Japan’s overall household spending declined in line with market forecast on an annual basis in August.

In Japan, the producer price index (PPI) fell on an annual basis in September.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its monetary policy decision, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, for the seventh consecutive month. Additionally, the RBA maintained its target yield for three-year government bonds.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, in his speech, warned that uncertainty over the country’s economic and price outlook remained “very high” as the coronavirus pandemic continued to impact global growth. Meanwhile, he indicated that the country is headed towards a moderate recovery.




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Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, after President Christine Lagarde pledged not to remove monetary support until the coronavirus crisis is over.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, after prospects for a Brexit deal improved.
The US Dollar ended weaker against its major counterparts last week, on US stimulus hopes and following weaker than expected US jobs data.


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FOMC expects rates to remain near zero

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in its September meeting minutes, indicated that it would maintain its interest rate near zero until it achieves its inflation target of 2%. Additionally, officials released projections showing they expected rates would stay near zero until the end of 2023 at least. On the other hand, the policymakers remained split over how to apply a new strategy for monetary policy at their September meeting and offered no clear sense of their next steps to offset the coronavirus recession.


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The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US consumer price index (CPI), monthly budget statement, the PPI, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, initial jobless claims, the US presidential debate, retail sales, industrial production and the Michigan consumer sentiment index for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator, industrial production, trade balance, the CPI, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech along with Germany’s CPI and ZEW indices will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s BRC retail sales, the ILO Unemployment rate and average earning including bonus, would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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