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Weekly Market Report

13 Jul 2020

13 July 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly higher last week, amid positive developments in finding a potential coronavirus treatment.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, as spike in the COVID-19 cases worldwide renewed concerns over economic recovery.

In the UK, the construction PMI advanced at its fastest pace in nearly two years in June.

UK’s Halifax house price index dropped for the fourth consecutive month in June.

The RICS house price balance climbed more-than-anticipated in June.

European Markets ended the week on a mostly positive footing, amid upbeat economic data and optimism over a potential coronavirus vaccine.

In the Eurozone, seasonally adjusted retail sales jumped in May.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index improved for the third straight month in July.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted factory orders advanced less than market forecast in May.

In Germany, seasonally adjusted industrial production rebounded in May.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-anticipated in May.

In Germany, non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed in May.

US Markets ended the week in green, as encouraging economic data renewed hopes over swift economic recovery.

In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI expanded in July.

US final Markit services PMI advanced in June.

US JOLTs job openings unexpectedly climbed in May.

The MBA mortgage applications climbed a weekly basis in the week ended 3 July 2020.

US consumer credit dropped more-than-expected in May.

In the US, seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims fell to a four-month low level in the week ended 03 July 2020.

US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell on a monthly basis on June.

Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week.

In Australia, the AiG performance of services index fell in June.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its policy meeting, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and pledged not to raise interest rate until progress is made. Moreover, the central bank pledged to maintain its accommodative approach for “as long as it is required”. Further, RBA indicated that the employment conditions have “stabilised” recently and the economic downturn has been “less severe than earlier expected”. Meanwhile, Governor Philip Lowe stated that despite the improvement, the nature and speed of the economic recovery was “highly uncertain”.

In China, the PPI dropped less than market forecast in June.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) advanced in line with market expectations in June.

In Japan, overall household spending declined more-than-anticipated on an annual basis in May.

Japan’s preliminary coincident index unexpectedly fell in May.

In Japan, non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened more than market forecast in May.

Japan’s leading economic index unexpectedly advanced in May.

In Japan, trade deficit (BOP basis) narrowed in May.

Japan’s PPI fell less than market consensus on an annual basis in June.


Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, on the back of upbeat economic data.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, after British Chancellor, Rishi Sunak unveiled a £30 billion stimulus plan to support the economy.
The US Dollar ended mostly weaker against its major counterparts last week, as robust economic data buoyed risk appetite among investors.


European Commission cuts economic forecast

The European Commission has slashed its growth forecasts for the euro area for this year and lowered its forecast for potential economic rebound in 2021. The Commission now expects Eurozone’s GDP to contract by 8.3% in 2020 and expand by 5.8% in 2021, compared to a forecast of -7.7% and 6% growth, respectively. Additionally, the Commission warned that longer than anticipated coronavirus lockdowns in many countries would cause a “significantly” deeper recession than previously predicted. Further, it expects Germany’s GDP contract by 6.3% in 2020, instead of 6.5%, due to stimulus measures announced by the German government. Moreover, the Commission indicated that the rebound in 2021 will likely be slower than it had previously projected.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US monthly budget statement, the CPI, industrial production, Fed’s Beige Book, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, retail sales, initial jobless claims, building permits and housing starts for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s ZEW economic indicator, industrial production, trade balance, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, the CPI and construction output along with Germany’s CPI, ZEW economic indicator, the PPI and GfK consumer confidence index will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s BRC retail sales, manufacturing production, industrial production, gross domestic product (GDP), the CPI, retail price index, the PPI and the ILO unemployment rate would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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