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Weekly Market Report

15 Mar 2021

15 March 2021


The Market Last Week

Global equities equities ended mostly firmer last week, as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast for 2021.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, amid prospects for economic recovery this year.

The BRC like-for-like retail sales advanced in February.

The RICS house price balance climbed in February.

UK house prices climbed in March.

Total trade deficit narrowed in January.

Britain’s economy contracted less than expected in January.

Industrial production dropped more than expected in January.

Manufacturing production fell more than market forecast in January.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, in his speech, stated that risks to UK economy remain tilted to the downside and warned that unemployment is likely to rise and remain higher a year from now. Moreover, Bailey reiterated the BoE’s guidance that it does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there’s clear evidence the economy is absorbing excess capacity.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, amid hopes for a swift economic recovery.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence rose to a 13-month high in March.

Eurozone’s industrial production grew more than expected in January.

Eurozone’s GDP contracted more than initially estimated in 4Q20.

The ECB, in its latest monetary policy decision, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.0%, as widely expected. Further, the ECB decided to keep its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) unchanged at a total of €1.85 trillion due to last until March 2022. Meanwhile, the central bank indicated that it expects to increase its bond purchases “significantly” over the next quarter, following a rise in borrowing costs in the region.

Germany’s trade surplus widened in January.

Germany's consumer price inflation accelerated as initially estimated in February.

Germany’s current account surplus narrowed in January.

Germany’s industrial production unexpectedly fell in January.

US Markets ended the week in green, as US President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law.

The NFIB small business optimism index rose in February.

The consumer price index (CPI) advanced as expected in February.

The JOLTs job openings climbed to an almost one-year high level in January.

Initial jobless claims dropped to a 4-month low in the week ended 05 March 2021.

US producer prices increased to a nearly 2-1/2 year high in February.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped to a 1-year high level in March.

The MBA mortgage applications fell for a fourth consecutive week last week.

Asian Markets ended mostly weaker last week.

Australia’s NAB business confidence index climbed in February.

Australia’s NAB business conditions index jumped in February.

Australia’s consumer inflation expectations rose in March.

Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index rose for a second consecutive month in March.

Australia’s new homes sales rebounded in February.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) dropped less than estimated in February.

China’s producer price index (PPI) climbed more than expected in February.

China’s retail sales surged in January.

China’s industrial production spiked in January.

In China, the house price index climbed in February.

Japan’s leading economic index advanced in January.

Japan’s coincident index rose more than market forecast in January.

Japan’s producer price index (PPI) dropped as estimated in February.

Japan’s downgraded its fourth quarter gross domestic product.


Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, as Eurozone’s investor confidence index jumped to a 13-month high in March.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, following Britain’s speedy vaccination programmes.
The US Dollar ended mostly lower against its major counterparts last week, as worries over rising inflation eased.


OECD lifts global growth outlook for 2021

The OECD, in its interim economic outlook, forecasted that global economy will expand by 5.6% in 2021 and by 4.0% next year, citing progress in the Covid-19 vaccine rollouts and as the US launched a new stimulus package. Additionally, Euro-zone’s economy was also upgraded to 3.9% from 3.6%. Further, the organisation raised the US growth projection to 6.5% from 3.2% seen in December and expects Britain’s economy to expand 5.1% in 2021 from 4.2%.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US current account balance, retail sales, industrial production, the NAHB housing market index, building permits, housing starts, Fed’s interest rate decision, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s ZEW economic indicator, the consumer price index (CPI), construction output, trade balance along with Germany’s ZEW indices and the producer price index (PPI) will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s Rightmove house price index, Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision, the GfK consumer confidence index and public sector net borrowing would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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