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Weekly Market Report

16 Nov 2020

16 November 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week, amid hopes for a potential Covid-19 vaccine.

UK Markets ended the week in green, on vaccines hopes.

UK’s average earnings including bonus grew more-than-expected in September.

In the UK, industrial production climbed in September.

UK’s manufacturing production advanced in September.

In the UK, the RICS housing price balance advanced in October, recording its highest reading since September 1999.

UK’s BRC like-for-like retail sales rose less than market consensus in October.

The ILO unemployment rate rose in September, marking its highest level since November 2016.

UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose less than market forecast in 3Q20.

In the UK, the NIESR GDP estimate advanced less than market consensus in October.

UK’s total trade surplus narrowed in September.

Britain’s economy grew at a slower pace in 3Q20.

UK’s Rightmove house prices fell for the first time in four months in November.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Andrew Bailey, in his speech, supported the central bank’s decision to ignore climate change risks in its response to the initial impact of COVID-19 on the economy. Furthermore, he added that the central bank will launch its climate stress tests for commercial lenders in June 2021 and it would explore three different climate scenarios.

BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, in his speech, indicated that the progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine would prove to be “very encouraging” for the UK. However, the central bank expects Britain’s economic recovery to regain to pre-pandemic levels only in the first half of 2022.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, amid optimism surrounding the coronavirus vaccine.

Eurozone’s trade balance widened in September.

Eurozone’s gross domestic product grew less than initially estimated in 3Q20.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence weakened for the second straight month in November.

In the Eurozone, the ZEW economic sentiment index unexpectedly dropped in November.

Eurozone’s industrial production dropped for the first time in five months in September.

Germany’s current account surplus widened in September.

In Germany, trade surplus expanded in September.

Germany’s ZEW current situation index fell in November.

In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index declined to a seven-month low in November.

Germany’s final consumer price index (CPI) dropped as initially estimated in October.

US Markets ended the week mostly higher, amid rising prospects for a Covid-19 vaccine.

US number of initial jobless claims dropped by the most in five weeks in the week ended 06 November 2020.

In the US, the JOLTs job openings advanced in September.

The MBA mortgage applications dropped in the week ended 06 November 2020.

The CPI advanced less-than-anticipated in October.

US budget deficit widened more than estimated in October.

US NFIB small business optimism index remained unchanged in October.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, Jerome Powell, in his speech, stated that the next few months could be challenging as it is unclear how the coronavirus vaccine news will influence the US economy. Further, he warned that rising Covid-19 infections could weaken the recent economic recovery.

Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week.

Australia’s NAB business confidence index rebounded in October.

In Australia, the NAB business conditions index advanced in October.

Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index jumped to a 7-year high level in November.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations advanced in November.

China’s industrial production jumped more than expected in October.

China’s CPI advanced less than market forecast in October.

China’s retail sales rose less than expected in October.

In China, the producer price index (PPI) fell in October.

Japan’s economy grew at its fastest pace in 3Q20.

Japan’s preliminary leading economic index advanced more than market consensus in September.

In Japan, the flash coincident index unexpectedly climbed in Spetember.

Japan’s trade surplus (BOP basis) unexpectedly widened in September.

In Japan, the producer price index fell in line with market expectations in October.

Japan’s non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed more than makret anticipations in September.


Currency Update

The EUR ended lower against the USD last week, as European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde warned of an “unsteady” Eurozone recovery.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, despite uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal.
The US Dollar ended mostly stronger against its major counterparts last week.


Lagarde warns economy could face ‘unsteady recovery’

ECB President, Christine Lagarde, in her speech, warned of an “unsteady” Eurozone recovery and excessive optimism over vaccine news. She reiterated that the central bank would continue to support the economy through its bond purchase program.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US retail sales, industrial production, building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and existing home sales for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s construction output, the CPI, current account balance, the consumer confidence index along with Germany’s producer price index (PPI) will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s CPI, the retail price index, the PPI, the GfK consumer confidence index and retail sales and the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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