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Weekly Market Report

20 Jul 2020

20 July 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week, as progress in the development of a potential coronavirus vaccine boosted investor sentiment.

UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, as encouraging results of an early stage human trial of coronavirus vaccine revived hopes for a swift economic recovery.

UK’s BRC retail sales advanced on an annual basis in June, registering its biggest jump in two years.

UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) advanced less than market expectations in May.

The NIESR GDP estimate unexpectedly dropped in June.

UK’s manufacturing production rebounded on a monthly basis in May.

Industrial production advanced in line with market forecast in May.

UK’s total trade surplus widened in May.

The consumer price index (CPI) advanced more-than-expected on an annual basis in June.

The retail price index rose in line with market anticipations in June.

UK’s non-seasonally adjusted output producer price index (PPI) dropped on an annual basis in June.

The ILO unemployment rate remained unchanged in May.

Average earnings including bonus dropped less than market consensus in May.

Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, in his speech, warned against the outlook indicated by his own chief economist Andy Haldane, who was optimistic about a "V-shaped" recovery in the economy post-COVID-19. Meanwhile, he added that Britain’s economy was starting to recover from coronavirus lockdown, however, the longer-term outlook remained unclear.

European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, on vaccine hopes.

Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted industrial production advanced less-than-anticipated on a monthly basis in May.

In the Eurozone, the ZEW economic sentiment index climbed less-than-expected in July.

Eurozone’s trade surplus widened in May.

In the Eurozone, the final CPI advanced as initially estimated in June.

Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted construction output climbed on a monthly basis in May.

Germany’s final CPI advanced in June.

In Germany, the ZEW current situation index climbed less than market forecast in July.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index dropped more than market consensus in July.

The European Central Bank (ECB), in its latest monetary policy meeting, kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0%, as widely expected. Additionally, the central bank maintained its huge bond-buying programme at its current size. Additionally, the central bank stated that it expects rates to remain at their “present or lower” levels until it has seen the inflation outlook “robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

US Markets ended mostly higher last week, after US biotech firm Moderna’s experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed promising results.

US budget deficit widened more than market forecast in June.

The NFIB business optimism index unexpectedly climbed in June.

US CPI rebounded in June.

Industrial production advanced more-than-anticipated on a monthly basis in June.

Manufacturing production rose on a monthly basis in May.

The MBA mortgage applications increased on a weekly basis in the week ended 10 July 2020.

The NY Empire State manufacturing index advanced more than market consensus in July.

US seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims fell less-than-expected on a weekly basis in the week ended 10 July 2020.

Business inventories dropped in line with market forecast in May.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped less-than-anticipated in July.

US NAHB housing market index advanced in July.

Advance retail sales climbed more than market expectations in June.

US flash Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly dropped in July.

Building permits in the US advanced on a monthly basis in June.

The housing starts climbed on a monthly basis in June.

Asian Markets ended mostly lower last week, as increasing coronavirus cases renewed fears of another round of lockdown restrictions.

Australia’s NAB business confidence index rose in June.

In Australia, the NAB business conditions index unexpectedly advanced in June.

Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index dropped in July.

In Australia, the HIA new home sales surged in May.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate advanced in June, hitting its highest level in 22 years.

In Australia, the consumer inflation expectations advanced less than market forecast in July.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) climbed more-than-anticipated on a quarterly basis in 2Q20.

In China, industrial production rose in June.

China’s the house price index advanced in June.

In China, retail sales unexpectedly fell in June.

China’s trade surplus narrowed more than market consensus in June.

The People´s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.85%, as widely expected.

In Japan, industrial production plunged on an annual basis in May.

Japan’s total merchandise trade deficit narrowed less than market forecast in June.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, as widely expected.

The BoJ, in its latest monetary policy meeting minutes, indicated that officials debated the risk of the country sliding back into deflation but stopped short of advocating stronger steps to prevent firms from going insolvent due to the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, the central bank kept policy settings unchanged at the June meeting, but several members remained gloomy on Japan’s recovery prospects.

The BoJ, in its quarterly outlook report, indicated that the economy is “likely to improve gradually from the second half of this year”, however, the pace is expected to be “only moderate while the impact of the novel coronavirus remains worldwide”. The central bank added that the economy will contract 4.7% in this fiscal year ending March 2021. Thereafter, the economy is projected to expand 3.3% in next fiscal year and 1.5% in 2022. Nevertheless, outlook is “extremely unclear” with risks “skewed to the downside”.


Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, amid hopes that the European Union would agree on a rescue financing package that would limit the economic damage.

The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback last week, after data indicated that Britain’s economy was recovering at a much slower pace than expected in May.

The US Dollar ended weaker against its major counterparts last week, as positive developments in finding a potential COVID-19 treatment boosted risk appetite among investors.


Beige Book: US economic activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels

The US Federal Reserve, in its latest Beige Book, indicated that the US economic activity increased in almost all districts but remained well below pre-pandemic levels. The report highlighted that consumer spending picked up and retail sales rose in all districts. Also, employment increased, and manufacturing activity improved. Meanwhile, the Fed reiterated that the outlook remained highly uncertain as it was unclear how long the crisis would last.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the housing price index, existing home sales, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s current account balance, consumer confidence index, business climate indicator, the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs along with Germany’s PPI, the GfK consumer confidence index, the Ifo indices, the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s public sector net borrowings, GfK consumer confidence index, retail sales, the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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