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Weekly Market Report

29 Jun 2020

29 June 2020


The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly lower last week, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its global economic growth to -4.9% from -3.0% forecast for 2020.

UK Markets ended the week in negative territory, as rising coronavirus cases stoked fears of a second round of lockdown restrictions.

In the UK, balance of firms reporting total order book above normal improved in June.

UK’s preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI advanced in June.

The Markit services PMI rose more than market forecast in June.

The CBI distributive trades survey rose at a slower than expected pace in June.

European Markets ended the week on a negative footing, amid news that US was weighing tariffs on European goods and ongoing worries over surging coronavirus cases.

In the Eurozone, preliminary consumer confidence index jumped in June.

Eurozone’s Markit manufacturing rose more-than-expected in June.

In the Eurozone, the Markit services PMI increased in June.

In Germany, the flash Markit manufacturing PMI climbed in June.

Germany’s preliminary Markit services PMI advanced in June.

In Germany, the Ifo business expectations index climbed more-than-anticipated in June.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index advanced to a four-month high level in June.

In Germany, the Ifo current assessment index advanced less than market consensus in June.

Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index improved in July.

European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde, in her speech, cautioned that though the economy ‘probably passed lowest point’ brought by the coronavirus crisis, the recovery “is going to be incomplete and might be transformational”. Additionally, she stated that European leaders are negotiating new fiscal stimulus based on a proposal put forward by the European Commission to raise €750 billion. However, the deal would likely not emerge as soon as during the next EU summit on July 17-18.

US Markets ended the week in red, following Federal Reserve’s (Fed) bank stress test results and a record spike in new coronavirus cases in the US.

In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rebounded in May.

Existing home sales dropped in May, recording its lowest level since October 2010.

US Richmond Fed manufacturing index rebounded in June.

New home sales rose more-than-anticipated in May.

US Markit manufacturing PMI jumped in June.

The Markit services PMI advanced in June.

The MBA mortgage applications dropped on a weekly basis in the week ended 19 June 2020.

The housing price index rose on a monthly basis in April.

US final annualised gross domestic product (GDP) dropped on a quarterly basis in 1Q20.

Seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims dropped less-than-anticipated on a weekly basis in the week ended 19 June 2020.

US durable goods orders rebounded on a monthly basis in May.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index advanced in June.

Personal income dropped less than market forecast on a monthly basis in May.

Personal spending advanced less than market anticipations in May.

Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week.

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank manufacturing PMI rose more than market expectations in June.

In Australia, the Commonwealth Bank services PMI unexpectedly climbed in June.

In Japan, the Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI dropped less-than-anticipated in June.

Japan’s flash Nikkei Japan services PMI surged in June.

In Japan, the corporate service price index advanced less than market consensus in May.

Japan’s Tokyo consumer price index (CPI) advanced less-than-expected on an annual basis in June.


Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, amid upbeat economic data.
The British Pound ended weaker against the greenback last week, amid ongoing conerns over increasing coronavirus cases and uncertainity related to Brexit deal.
The US Dollar ended mostly stronger against its major counterparts last week, as rising cases of coronavirus infections around the world increased demand for the safe haven asset.


IMF downgrades global growth forecast

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook report, downgraded its global growth forecasts for this year and warned that 2020 would witness the worst global economic contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The IMF now estimates a contraction of 4.9% in global GDP in 2020, lower than the 3% drop predicted in April. Also, the organisation expects the US economy to contract by 8% this year. Further, it warned that public finances will deteriorate significantly as governments try to contain the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.


The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US pending home sales, the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index, consumer confidence index, the Chicago PMI, the ISM manufacturing PMI, the ADP employment change, the Markit manufacturing PMI, FOMC minutes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for further direction. Additionally, Eurozone’s business climate index, the CPI, the Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, the producer price index (PPI) and retail sales along with Germany’s CPI, retail sales, unemployment rate, the Markit manufacturing PMI and factory orders will keep investors on their toes. Also, UK’s consumer credit, GDP, the Markit and services manufacturing PMIs would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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