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Weekly Market Report

17 Dec 2019

17 December 2019

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The Market Last Week

Global equities ended higher last week, after the US and China agreed on an initial trade deal that suspended a threatened round of US tariffs.


UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, after Boris Johnson's Conservative Party secured a large parliamentary majority.

In the UK, gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a flat reading on a monthly basis in October, hitting its lowest level since March 2012.

Goods trade deficit widened more than market anticipations in October.

Industrial production advanced less than market consensus on a monthly basis in October.

Manufacturing production climbed higher than market expectations on a monthly basis in October.

The RICS house price balance dropped in November.

The housing price balance fell more than market expectations in November.

The Rightmove house price index fell on a monthly basis in December.

The flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped in December, marking its lowest level since July 2016.

The flash Markit services PMI unexpectedly declined in December.




European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, on the back of a preliminary trade deal agreed between the US and China.

In the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence index unexpectedly rose in December.

The ZEW economic sentiment index in Eurozone unexpectedly climbed in December.

In the Eurozone, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell in line with market expectations on a monthly basis in October.

In the Eurozone, the preliminary services PMI increased to a four-month high level in December.

The flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a two-month low in the Eurozone in December.

The seasonally adjusted trade surplus unexpectedly widened in Germany in October.

In Germany, the non-seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed less than market expectations in October.

In Germany, the ZEW current situation index improved in December.

In December, the ZEW economic sentiment index climbed more than market consensus in Germany.

In Germany, the consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged on a monthly basis in November.

In Germany, the preliminary Markit services PMI rose in line with market anticipations in December.

In December, the preliminary manufacturing PMI unexpectedly eased in Germany.




US Markets ended the week in green, after the US President, Donald Trump and Chinese officials announced the “phase one” trade pact and after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that it would not hike rates in 2020.

The NFIB small business optimism index rose more than market anticipation in November.

Nonfarm productivity fell more than expected on quarterly basis in 3Q19.

The CPI rose more than market expectations on an annual basis in November.

The MBA mortgage applications advanced on a weekly basis for the week ended 6 December.

Budget deficit widened more than market estimates in November.

The producer price index (PPI) remained unchanged on a monthly basis in November.

Initial jobless claims rose on a weekly basis for the week ended 6 December.

Advance retail sales increased less than expectations on a monthly basis in November.

Business inventories rose in line with market expectations in October.

The NY Empire State manufacturing index rose less than market expectation in December.

In December, the preliminary Markit services PMI climbed more than estimates.

The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI slightly dropped in December.

The housing market index unexpectedly advanced in December.




Asian Markets ended firmer last week, following upbeat Chinese economic data and as US-China trade tensions eased.

The business confidence index in Australia remained flat in November.

In Australia, the house price index advanced more than market expectations on a quarterly basis in 3Q19.

In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence index dropped in December.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations remained steady in Decmeber.

In Australia, seasonally adjusted home loan approvals advanced on a monthly basis in October.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its meeting minutes, showed that the central bank was “prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.” Additionally, minutes indicated that the RBA will “reassess” the economic outlook at its February 2020 meeting, when the central bank would prepare its updated forecasts.

In Japan, the PPI unexpectedly advanced on a yearly basis in November.

Japan’s Jibun manufacturing PMI dropped in December, contracting for the eighth straight month.

Industrial production in Japan fell more than market consensus on an annual basis in October.

In China, the CPI advanced more than market anticipations on an annula basis in November.

In November, the PPI declined less than market expectations on an annula basis in China.

In China, industrial output climbed on an annual basis in November.

China’s retail sales advanced on a yearly basis in November.




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Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD in the previous week, amid positive remarks from the new European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's electoral win renewed optimism of an orderly Brexit.
The US Dollar ended weaker against its major counterparts last week, following the US Fed’s dovish stance on monetary policy.


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Fed leaves rates unchanged, signals a rate hike pause in 2020

The US Fed, in its latest policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected and signalled that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2020. The central bank reiterated that the labour market remains robust and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate pace. The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, stated that he would not consider increasing rates until inflation picks up significantly. The Chairman expressed optimism about the economy and indicated that he is now less worried about economic risks from the trade war or global slowdown.


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The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, mortgage applications, and Michigan consumer sentiment index along with Kansas Fed manufacturing activity. In the Eurozone, investors will look forward to ECB President, Christine Lagarde’s speech, CPI, construction output data and consumer confidence along with Germany’s PPI, business climate, consumer confidence. Additionally, UK’s CPI, PPI, retail sales and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision will keep investors on their toes.


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