Flight fare analysis findings: Booking early can save you big, last-minute flights cost 25% more on average; get cheaper fares by planning 30 days in advance

Flight fare analysis findings: Booking early can save you big, last-minute flights cost 25% more on average; get cheaper fares by planning 30 days in advance

Everyone knows a last-minute flight costs more. Almost nobody knows by how much, or on which routes it matters enough to change what you do.

An analysis of fares by the TOI-DPA Airline Price Index, flights across 54 routes connecting Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Pune puts a number on it. Booking a month ahead instead of the day before saves about a fifth of the fare on the average route. And there is not one route in the set where leaving it late works out cheaper.

Read more: Flying to Kolkata for Durga Puja? Be ready to pay 71% more on Oct 16

What does the curve look like?

The tracker sets the day-before fare on each route at 100 and measures every other booking point against it. A reading of 80 means a ticket bought at that point costs 80% of what the same seat costs the day before departure.

Across the whole network the reading at 30 days out is 80. At a week out it is 88. So the last three weeks before departure account for most of the damage, and the final week alone adds about 12 points.

Read the other way, a passenger booking the day before pays roughly 25% more than one who booked the same journey a month earlier.
Read more: TOI-DPA Airfare Index: A flight price tracker that will help you plan trips better

Is there any route where waiting works?

No. Not one of the 54.

At 30 days out, every single route sits below 100, meaning every single route is cheaper booked a month ahead than booked the day before. The same holds at a week out and at two months out.

The figures were checked on two consecutive captures and did not change.

Where does waiting hurt most?

Ahmedabad to Pune is the worst in the country, at 121% extra for booking the day before. Kolkata to Chennai follows at 113%, then Kolkata to Bengaluru at 93% and Kolkata to Hyderabad at 90%.

At the other end the numbers collapse. Bengaluru to Chennai charges 3%, Mumbai to Delhi and Pune to Delhi around 7%, Chennai to Bengaluru and Bengaluru to Delhi about 9%.

Why is Bengaluru to Chennai so flat?

It is the shortest hop in the set at about 270 km, and it is well served, with roughly ten flights a day in each direction.

Short, dense, heavily served routes tend to run something close to a fixed price ladder. There are enough seats that airlines are not squeezing the last few, and the flight is cheap enough to operate that the gap between a cheap seat and an expensive one is narrow in absolute terms. The result is a fare that barely moves as the date closes in.

That is a convenience, not a bargain. The route is still expensive per kilometre. It just does not get more expensive if you turn up late.

So when should you book?

About a month out, and there is a reason not to go much earlier.

Thirty days is where the curve bottoms. At 60 days the reading rises to 82, and at 90 days to 86. Booking three months ahead costs slightly more than booking one month ahead on most routes. On six routes, including Mumbai to Delhi and Ahmedabad to Mumbai, the 90-day fare is actually a little higher than the day-before fare.
Route by route, 34 of the 54 are cheapest at 30 days, 14 at 60 days and only six at 90.

If you can plan one thing, plan to be booked about four weeks out. Earlier than that buys you certainty rather than savings. Later than that is where the money goes.

Is there an exception right now?

Yes, and it is a large one. Flights into Kolkata are currently running backwards.

Read more at:
TOI-DPA Airfare Index: A flight price tracker that will help you plan trips better - The Times of India